华尔街对7月美联储议息会议持何看法?

华尔街对7月美联储议息会议的看法?

美联储增加利率,加密货币市场预期政策收紧

作者:LianGuaiBitpushNews Mary Liu

美联储于周三下午批准了加息25个基点,这是自17个月前以来的第11次加息,使得联邦基准借贷成本升至22年来的最高水平1。这一决定引起了投资者的关注,他们表现出了加息周期结束的迹象。尽管6月份的会议上,政策制定者表示今年还有两次加息,但金融市场已经消化了今年不会再加息的可能性2。美股方面,标准普尔500指数收盘基本持平,纳斯达克指数小幅走低。道琼斯指数连续第13次上涨,创下自1987年1月以来最长的连涨纪录。而加密货币方面,BTC 24小时涨幅为0.8%,交易价格为29,470美元,以太坊小幅上涨0.5%3

额外的政策紧缩

路透社最近针对106名经济学家进行的调查显示,大多数受访者预计这次加息将是本周期的最后一次加息,但美联储的预测表明情况并非如此4。据加密货币交易公司和流动性提供商GSR研究分析师Matt Kunke指出,美联储官员的预测中值是今年还会加息两次。市场当前更倾向于认同仅会进行一次加息的观点(65%),而认为可能会进行两次加息的观点仅有27%5

美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,央行尚未就未来加息做出任何决定,但对抗通胀的斗争仍将继续。根据美国劳工部公布的数据显示,6月份的同比通胀率为3%,较去年6月的9.1%大幅下降。但是,美联储更关注的“核心”通胀指标——排除食品和能源成本的指标,仍然增长了4.6%6

美联储会后的声明显示:“委员会将考虑货币政策的累积紧缩、货币政策对经济活动和通胀的滞后性以及经济和金融发展等因素。”此外,一些美联储官员认为之前的加息累积效应已经融入经济中,但考虑到通胀仍高于目标水平,他们认为可能还需要进一步加息以缓解物价压力7

美联储主席鲍威尔重申了这一点,并表示,如果数据显示必要,九月份可能会进一步加息。他说:“我们可能会选择在那次会议上保持不变,但正如我所说,我们将在逐次会议中进行仔细评估”8

今年不太可能降息

鲍威尔指出,尽管通胀放缓,但要达到美联储的2%目标还有很长的路要走。他认为经济将实现软着陆,今年不太可能降息9

对于明年降息的预期,鲍威尔表示,一些FOMC参与者已将降息纳入其经济预测,但这取决于通胀是否能降至2%的目标。鲍威尔仍然相信在不导致经济急剧下滑的情况下,美联储能够降低通胀,尽管距离确定还有很长的路要走。他提到,未来降息的决定将根据他们对通胀目标的信心来决定10

专业人士如何解读?

高盛资产管理公司全球固定收益宏观策略师Gurpreet Gill指出,任何新的通胀迹象都可能意味着美联储的加息路径将延长。如果进一步推进通胀问题的解决,将限制美国国债收益率的上涨幅度。而如果通胀继续降温,10年期国债收益率甚至可能下降。不过,强劲的劳动力市场和经济增长将减缓收益率的潜在下降11

高盛在一份给客户的报告中表示,美联储的声明并不意味着未来加息步伐放缓,但预计9月份将加息12

Edward Jones投资策略师Angelo Kourfafas表示,美联储向市场传达的信息是“没有起到任何推动作用”。他认为,美联储将继续行动,除非看到工资通胀下降13

Northwestern Mutual财富管理公司首席投资官Brent Schutte表示,鲍威尔的信息显然是,美联储将观望经济数据以做出新的决策。他认为,只有在看到工资通胀下降时,美联储才会停止行动14

MRB LianGuar Partners全球策略师Phillip Colmar表示,市场对明年大幅降息的预期可能是错误的。实际情况可能需要进一步加息15

LPL Financial首席全球策略师Quincy Krosby表示,美联储的声明为再次加息敞开了大门,但声明的语气更加中性,而不是明显的鸽派或鹰派16

Web3投资基金Generative Ventures的执行合伙人Lex Sokolin表示,美联储的声明并不会改变加密货币所面临的局势。当前处于避险环境中,如果出现俄乌战争或美国经济衰退等事件,情况可能变得更加困难。尽管科技和金融估值相对稳定,人工智能可能是一个异常值17

Sokolin预计还会有几次加息,但认为应对新冠疫情供应链冲击和相关的印钞泡沫已经完成18


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  2. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). United States: Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates for the 11th time. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

  3. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). United States: Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates for the 11th time. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

  4. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). United States: Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the 11th time in the past 17 months, and the market still expects further tightening. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

  5. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). United States: Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the 11th time in the past 17 months, and the market still expects further tightening. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

  6. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). United States: Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the 11th time in the past 17 months, and the market still expects further tightening. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

  7. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). United States: Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the 11th time in the past 17 months, and the market still expects further tightening. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

  8. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). United States: Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the 11th time in the past 17 months, and the market still expects further tightening. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

  9. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). United States: Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the 11th time in the past 17 months, and the market still expects further tightening. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

  10. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). United States: Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the 11th time in the past 17 months, and the market still expects further tightening. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

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  12. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). US: Professional Interpretation. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

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  14. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). US: Professional Interpretation. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

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  16. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). US: Professional Interpretation. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

  17. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). US: Professional Interpretation. Bitpush News. Link↩︎

  18. Bitpush News. (2022, July 27). US: Professional Interpretation. Bitpush News. Link↩︎